Enhanced Model Access

HORMUZ PRO

The free model recovered. Pro would have avoided the drawdown entirely.

Free model: +18.5% since inception (but hit -15.2% on the way).
Enhanced model (backtested): +27.4% since inception. Max drawdown: -2%.

* Enhanced model performance is hypothetical/backtested through July 21, 2026. Not live-traded results.

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Performance

Same Market. Different Model.

Free Model LIVE
Strategy Supply-only, directionally long
Inception return +18.5%
Max drawdown -15.2%
vs Brent (+16.0%) +2.5pp alpha
Signals tracked 15
Thesis vindicated — but the ride was brutal. -15.2% drawdown before recovery.
Status: Recovered — but could you have held?
Pro Model BACKTESTED
Strategy Multi-factor, bi-directional
Inception return (hypothetical) +27.4%
Max drawdown -2.0%
vs Brent (+16.0%) +11.4pp alpha
Signals tracked 30+
Avoided the -15% drawdown. Caught the Jul 7 re-entry. Rode the rebound from $72 to $92.
Status: Outperforming with 1/7th the drawdown

Same data. Same market. The difference is what the model does with it.

Signal Detection

Three Signals the Free Model Missed

June 18-19

Forward Curve Collapse

Brent 1-year backwardation compressed from $32 to $15 in a single week. This is the most reliable institutional sell signal in commodity markets.

Free Model

Didn't track forward curve. Stayed long.

Pro Model (Hypothetical)

Flagged regime change. Went 50% cash.

Impact: Avoided -5% drawdown
June 16

Bank Consensus Flip

Goldman, Morgan Stanley, and Citi all cut forecasts on the same day. The first unanimous bearish shift since the crisis began.

Free Model

Noted but didn't act. Supply thesis unchanged.

Pro Model (Hypothetical)

Scored consensus shift as -3 sigma event. Reduced exposure.

Impact: Pre-positioned for the crash
June 21-23

Transit Velocity Threshold

Transit crossed 20% of normal while the diplomatic track held. Normalization pricing became inevitable.

Free Model

Transit noted as “recovering fast.” No allocation change.

Pro Model (Hypothetical)

Triggered defensive posture at 20% threshold. Opened small short at $77.

Impact: +3% from short position as Brent dropped to $72
Bonus -- June 26

Ship Attack Snap-Back

Singapore-flagged ship struck near Oman. First live-fire since MOU.

Free Model

Noted. Still long and losing.

Pro Model (Hypothetical)

Tactical long on attack signal. Captured the volatility bounce.

Impact: Captured volatility spike
Coverage

30+ Data Streams vs 15

Free — 15 Streams
Brent/WTI spot
Hormuz transit count
EIA weekly data
Geopolitical headlines
Shipping incidents
IEA/OPEC monthly
China/India imports
Pro Adds — 15+ More
Forward curve structure (contango/backwardation)
Bank forecast consensus scoring
Diplomatic sentiment NLP (quantified, not binary)
Transit velocity thresholds (adaptive signals)
Insurance rate tick data
Tanker fleet positioning (AIS-derived)
Options implied volatility surface
Freight rate tracking (VLCC day rates)
Refinery margin analysis
OPEC+ compliance monitoring
Dark fleet activity scoring
Fund positioning (CFTC COT data)
Macro regime detection
Bi-directional allocation (long AND short)
Adaptive stop-loss signals
Architecture

The Engine

Multi-Factor Scoring

Pro doesn't just track supply. It scores 30+ signals across supply, demand, sentiment, and positioning. Each signal gets a directional weight. The composite score drives allocation — including the ability to go short.

Adaptive Thresholds

The free model uses fixed assumptions. Pro learns. When transit crosses 20%, when banks flip bearish, when the forward curve collapses — Pro adjusts in real time. Not because someone changed the rules. Because the data crossed a threshold.

Bi-Directional

The free model can only be long oil. It wins when oil goes up and bleeds when oil goes down. Pro can go both ways — long calls when disruption spikes, short when normalization accelerates. The June 23–26 short position turned the free model's -8% week into Pro's +3%.

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Choose Your Edge

Free
$0
Your current plan
  • - Daily model updates on hormuz.bet
  • - Weekly newsletter
  • - 15 data streams
  • - Long-only strategy
You're already here
Pro
$99/month
or $799/year (save 33%)
  • Everything in Free, plus:
  • 30+ data streams incl. forward curve, sentiment, positioning
  • Bi-directional allocation (long + short)
  • Adaptive threshold signals
  • Daily Pro allocation email at 5am PT
  • Priority Telegram alerts on threshold breaches
  • Weekly deep-dive with trade structure (strikes, expiries, sizing)
Start Pro — $99/month

Cancel anytime. First 7 days free.

Important Disclosure

All Pro model performance figures cited on this page are hypothetical and backtested. They represent how the enhanced model would have performed based on historical data and retroactively applied logic. The Pro model has not been live-traded. Past hypothetical performance is not indicative of future results. This is research and analysis, not investment advice. Do not make trading decisions based solely on backtested model performance.

The free model told you oil was going up. It was right — eventually.
It was wrong.

Pro would have told you WHEN to get out, WHEN to go short, and WHEN to get back in. No -15% drawdown. No white-knuckle weeks.

Both models are positive. But Pro's max drawdown was -2% vs Free's -15.2%. The difference: 8.9 percentage points of return and a night-and-day risk experience.*

* Hypothetical/backtested. Not live-traded results.