Hormuz Traffic
Current Transit
13%
17 of ~130 vessels/day
Pre-crisis, ~130 vessels transited daily carrying ~20 mb/d. Following Iran's closure during Operation Epic Fury, transit collapsed 90%+. The June 17–18 MOU initiated cautious reopening — 17 transits recorded June 18 — but the main TSS channel remains mined with ~80 devices. Only inshore corridors are navigable.
Shipping Risk
War Risk Insurance
1.5–2.5%
vs 0.1% pre-crisis
No major carrier (Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd, CMA CGM, MSC) has resumed transit. War risk premiums remain 15–25x normal. ~80 mines block the main channel. GPS jamming/spoofing affected 1,100+ vessels. The MOU is 48 hours old and already under stress.
Pipeline Bypass
Pipeline bypass covers ~33% of pre-crisis Hormuz flow. Saudi's East-West pipeline is at emergency max (7 mb/d throughput, ~4.3 mb/d net export via Yanbu). UAE's ADCOP runs at 1.85 mb/d but Fujairah port faces intermittent attacks. Iraq-Turkey pipeline disputes limit utilization to 0.5 mb/d of 1.6 mb/d capacity.
Inventory Response
US SPR
340.3M bbl
Lowest since 1983
OECD Stocks
Lowest
since 1990
Inventory Offset
~3.0 mb/d
The safety net is nearly exhausted. US SPR at 340.3M barrels (lowest since 1983), drawing at ~1.3 mb/d near infrastructure limits. OECD commercial stocks lowest since 1990 — drew 143M barrels in May alone. IEA coordinated 252M barrels of 400M authorized. At current pace, SPR falls below 250M barrels by July.
Demand Destruction
Demand Destruction
~2.0 mb/d
China Imports
7.79 mb/d
Down 29% YoY
IEA projects 1.1 mb/d annual demand decline for 2026 — first since COVID. China seaborne imports at 8-year low. But demand destruction is easing as Brent falls from $111 to $80. US PMI at 54.0 (expansion). The demand response is partially reversible — as prices stabilize, demand recovers, tightening the balance again.
Non-Hormuz Supply
Additional Supply
~0.8 mb/d
above trend
Non-Hormuz producers are responding but incrementally. US at 13.8 mb/d (+0.2 above trend). Brazil hit an all-time record 4.24 mb/d. Guyana at 903k bpd with 30k expansion pending. The critical gap: ~4+ mb/d of OPEC spare capacity exists on paper but is TRAPPED behind Hormuz — Saudi producing 6.57 vs 10.23 mb/d target.