Hormuz Oil Disruption Tracker

Nov 7 log: Brent Jan settled $98.32 on Nov 6 (+$0.03, +0.03%); WTI $90.83 (+0.34%). Brent fell more than 13% on the week, the steepest since Covid, after Democrats won Congress. Iran reported three more tankers hit in Hormuz; UKMTO says attacks continue at a near-record rate. Rapidan sees 80% odds fighting resumes (Brent >$100) while Iran's reported nuclear proposal via Qatar keeps deal hopes alive. Allocation Return figure carried pending further updates.

Nov 6 log: Brent Jan settled $98.29 on Nov 5 (+$3.67, +3.88%), snapping a three-session losing streak after Wednesday's 8.7% plunge; WTI $90.52 (+2.72%). Traders pared bets on rapid normalization as tanker attacks continued: IRGC says two more tankers hit mines Friday and UKMTO reports an explosion on a tanker east of Khasab (unconfirmed). Iran exempts China, India, Iraq, Qatar vessels; IRGC cites 20 transits in 24h. Eurasia Group lifted prolonged-war odds to 30% from 15% ($110-125 Brent on escalation). Allocation Return figure carried pending further updates.

Nov 5 log: Brent Jan settled $94.62 on Nov 4 (-$8.98, -8.67%), lowest close since Aug 31; WTI $88.12 (-8.29%). Democrats won Congress; Vance blamed the war and markets priced a higher chance of an Iran deal. Overnight the IRGC said two supertankers and a tugboat caught fire on an unauthorized southern route (one mine strike); UKMTO reports a tanker hit by projectiles off Qatar. Iran says the strait is closed to uncoordinated transit; mediation has no breakthrough. Gulf exports averaged 17.1 mb/d in October. Allocation Return figure carried pending further updates.

Nov 4 log: Brent Jan settled $103.60 on Nov 3 (-$1.17, -1.12%), lowest since Oct 7 and down $14 (-11.9%) over two sessions; WTI $96.09. Peace hopes (Qatar-mediated US-Iran talks, Russia-Ukraine talks in Abu Dhabi) offset a limited US strike on Qeshm Island after the IRGC fired on a US aircraft. IRGC claims four tankers hit mines (unverified by BBC); UKMTO reports a tanker hit by projectiles off Limah. Iran doubled its non-compliant list to 240 vessels and exempted India, China, Iraq and Qatar. S&P: October Hormuz transits 750, a 3-month high. Allocation Return figure carried pending further updates.

Nov 3 log: Brent Jan settled $104.77 on Nov 2 (-$8.66, -7.63% vs $113.43), biggest drop since July; WTI $96.46 (-7.36%), below $100. Pezeshkian says the Supreme Leader granted authority for talks; Iran says its Qatari-mediated plan could reopen Hormuz in two days, conditional on end of the US blockade and sanctions relief. No deal; Trump favors giving diplomacy time ahead of the Nov 3 midterms. Allocation Return figure carried pending further updates.

Nov 2 log (intraday, superseded by settle above): Brent Jan $108.64 intraday (-4.2% vs $113.43 Fri settle; not a final settle), WTI $99.71. Iranian negotiators left Qatari-mediated talks with a draft proposal circulating; plan would see US measures day one and Hormuz reopening day two, with no US acceptance yet. Two tankers reportedly mined Sunday. Trump reportedly wants diplomacy to play out; Netanyahu pushes for strikes after the Nov 3 midterms. Allocation Return figure carried from Nov 1 pending the next full settle.

Nov 1 log: Sunday, no new Brent session; last settle Brent Dec $117.64 (+2.4%, six-month high), WTI $104.12. Iran FM Araghchi says a Qatar-discussed proposal could reopen Hormuz within two days if Washington accepts conditions (sanctions relief, fewer US deployments, release of frozen funds); Trump says talks are “going fine” but he is “not in a hurry,” with no decision on post-midterm strikes. OPEC+ core seven held December quotas unchanged.

Oct 31 log: Brent December (expiring) settled $117.64 on Oct 30 (+2.40%, +$2.76), highest since end-April, touching $118; January contract $113.43; WTI $104.12 (+2.08%). Brent +13.6% and WTI +15.2% in October. UKMTO reports a tanker hit by explosives attached to its hull by a small boat 25nm NE of Khasab (crew safe, vessel continuing), the first known successful limpet-mine strike in the strait this war; IRGC says four tankers caught fire, some after striking mines on unauthorized routes (unverified). At least 35 attacks on Gulf/Hormuz shipping in October, the most of the war. Qatari mediators back in Tehran; Trump says the war will end soon, but US escalation is feared after the Nov 3 midterms.

Oct 30 log: Brent December settled $114.88 on Oct 29 (-0.38%, -$0.44), sixth-highest close of 2026; WTI $102.00 (-0.76%). Prices fell more than $2 intraday on VP Vance’s push to revive talks and a Qatari delegation in Tehran, then recovered part of the loss; Iran rejected the latest draft as unacceptable. IRGC says four tankers struck mines on the southern route and challenges CENTCOM’s mine-clearing claim; UKMTO reports a tanker disabled by limpet-style devices off Khasab. Houthis claim new strikes on Saudi airports and oil facilities. EIA crude stocks -1.9M bbl.

Oct 29 log: Brent December settled $115.32 on Oct 28 (+1.26%, +$1.44), reversing two straight declines; WTI $102.78 (+2.88%). Houthis claim a missile strike on Saudi Arabia's Ras Tanura refinery (unconfirmed by Riyadh) and attacks on Abha and Aden airports; WSJ reports the US told Gulf states to prepare for a short, intense campaign after the Nov 3 midterms. Qatari mediators delivered a new draft deal to Iran, reply expected by end of week. EIA crude stocks -1.9M bbl vs build expected. UKMTO: 241 Hormuz transits Oct 15-21, -5.1% w/w. UBS holds Brent near $110 through year-end.

Oct 28 log: Brent December settled $113.88 on Oct 27 (-1.67%, -$1.93), second straight drop, still near six-month highs; WTI $99.90 (-1.83%). Saudi, Turkey, Pakistan and Iranian officials met in Tehran while Trump weighs a deal versus further military action. Iranian navy says a tanker hit a mine and caught fire east of Hormuz and that the strait remains unsafe and closed without coordination; PGSA targets Sinokor VLCCs. S&P: 17 Hormuz transits/day Oct 24-25. Fed Oct 28, US midterms Nov 3.

Oct 27 log: Brent December settled $115.81 on Oct 26 (-0.78%, -$0.91), the fourth-highest settle of 2026; WTI $101.76 (-1.46%). Qatari mediators in Tehran and Saudi defence minister talks cap the move while Houthi attacks on Saudi sites continue. Iran's PGSA says it will take legal action against Sinokor VLCCs (7+ already subject to enforcement); blacklist at 123 vessels. INTERTANKO: 30+ daily transits on the southern route. Third US carrier group due early Nov; midterms Nov 3, Fed Oct 28.

Oct 26 log: Brent ~$110 intraday (Reuters early print $114.6; Euronews later ~$110) vs $116.72 Friday settle; WTI ~$101.5. Qatari mediators reached Tehran Sunday; Saudi defence minister, Pakistan army chief and Turkey intel chief due Monday. Trump: "do I make a deal with them, or do I finish them off?" Houthis claim strikes on East-West pipeline pumping stations and Riyadh airport. IEA's Birol does not expect a return to prewar markets in 2027. Fed Oct 28, US midterms Nov 3.

Oct 25 log: Weekend, no new settle: Brent December $116.72 and WTI $103.27 unchanged from Friday (Brent +6.2% on the week, third straight weekly gain). IRGC says traffic of non-compliant ships through Hormuz has stopped after it destroyed navigation aids; two more supertankers (~4.5M bbl) reportedly hit mines Friday and Fars reports another VLCC struck exiting the strait Saturday (all unverified; CENTCOM says no mines). Iran blacklist reaches 124 vessels. Markets watch Israel vote Oct 27, Fed Oct 28, US midterms Nov 3.

Oct 24 log: Brent December settled $116.72 on Oct 23 (+3.14% vs $113.17), the highest settle since Apr 29; WTI Dec $103.27 (+3.8%). Brent +6.2% on the week. Houthi clashes with the Saudi-led coalition continue; UAE reports a tanker oil spill off Umm Al Quwain. Washington Institute: 28 attacks on Hormuz-area shipping in October (133 since Feb 28). Iran's army chief says forces ready for asymmetric warfare; traders expect US strikes to resume within weeks.

Oct 23 log: Brent December settled $113.17 on Oct 22 (+4.00% vs $108.82), the highest close since May 4. IRGC says 7 tankers were struck or hit mines, the largest one-day toll of the war (CENTCOM denies mine claims); Houthis claim strikes on Riyadh and Aramco Yanbu; Aramco evacuates Dhahran HQ and the US orders non-emergency staff out of Saudi Arabia.

Oct 22 log: Brent December settled $108.82 on Oct 21 (+0.03% vs $108.79), WTI Dec $97.15 (-0.7%, front-month roll). Putin agreed to resume US-mediated Ukraine talks; EIA crude stocks -3.06M bbl vs -0.82M expected. Thursday: IRGC says four tankers hit and three struck mines near Hormuz (unverified); Houthi strikes on Saudi Dammam airport and an oilfield lift Brent to ~$112, a five-month high. Kpler: 18+ vessel attacks in two weeks; US weighs pulling non-essential embassy staff from the Gulf.

Oct 21 log: Brent December settled $108.79 on Oct 20 (-0.69% vs $109.55) after touching $111.99 and dipping to ~$105.95 on a Qatar/Pakistan mediation report; WTI Nov expired at $101.79 (-1.8%). Wednesday Brent ~$110.4 as Iran rules out reopening Hormuz before US conditions are met and Rubio calls a truce extremely difficult. IRGC says mines stopped three tankers (CENTCOM denies); Kpler counts 18+ vessel attacks in two weeks, reaching the Gulf of Oman; Houthis hit Saudi sites; US crude and product stocks fell.

Oct 20 log: Brent December settled $109.55 on Oct 19 (-0.28% vs $109.86), WTI $103.66 (+2.22%, highest since Sep 15), spread $5.89 ahead of Nov WTI expiry. Tanker exploded after hitting a mine in southern Hormuz (IRGC, unconfirmed); Gulf crude flows ~8.5 mb/d vs 20+ prior; Iran says "no choice" but to assert control of Hormuz; 7-day reopening offer still open. US waived some Russia sanctions; Houthis claim hits on Yanbu/Shaybah (unconfirmed).

Oct 19 log: Brent December $108.52 intraday (-1.22% vs $109.86 Friday settle), WTI $101.28, as profit-taking hits the five-month high. IRGC says a tanker exploded after striking a naval mine in southern Hormuz Sunday; Kpler: Gulf crude flows ~8.5 mb/d last week vs 20+ prior, 10+ vessel incidents. Trump waived some Russia sanctions (diesel); IEA suggests more diesel releases; Egypt offers Saudi support vs Houthis.

Oct 18 log: Weekend, no new settle: Brent December last settled $109.86 (Oct 16), WTI $101.41. FM Araghchi says Iran's seven-day proposal (lift blockade and oil sanctions, ceasefire on all fronts) remains on the table, with Hormuz reopening on day six if met; US insists on nuclear terms first. UKMTO: 10+ vessels attacked since last Sunday (weekly high), 23 in October; tug struck off UAE Sunday; IRGC claims a supertanker hit a mine Saturday (CENTCOM disputes).

Oct 17 log: Brent December settled $109.86 (+3.72% vs $105.92), touching $110 intraday for the first time since May; WTI $101.41 (+3.5%, +10.4% on the week). Iran's army spokesman said Hormuz reopens only if the US leaves the region; at least nine ships attacked since Sunday. Houthis fired a ballistic missile at Yanbu (intercepted). Kpler: Hormuz crude exports 9.4 mb/d (~70% of pre-war). IEA diesel release and US 17M bbl SPR exchange seen as insufficient; Ukraine resumed Russian refinery strikes.

Oct 16 log: Brent December settled $105.92 (-0.13% vs $106.06), WTI $97.97 (+3.0%) after an 8.6M bbl US crude draw vs ~0.3M expected. GFS Pride and Cape Dao sank near Hormuz; CENTCOM says an IRGC projectile (not a mine) hit GFS Pride, and attacks around the strait have surged over 10 days. IEA agreed to release 20M+ bbl of diesel; US weighing easing shadow-fleet sanctions; Iranian diplomat says NPT withdrawal is under consideration. Houthi-Saudi fighting keeps the risk premium elevated.

Oct 15 log: Brent December settled $106.06 (+0.35% vs $105.69), WTI $95.09 (+1%). GFS Pride (container) and Cape Dao (bulk carrier) sank near Hormuz in 24h; at least 10 vessels attacked since Sunday, the highest daily attack level of the war. Iranian officials say they are stepping up strikes to keep prices elevated before US midterms. Houthis hit a Saudi Aramco administrative building in Dhahran; a Saudi-led coalition struck Houthi energy terminals. IEA October OMR: diesel constraints could persist well into 2027. Paul Tudor Jones sees another $20–25 upside in crude.

Oct 14 log: Brent December ~$106.60 (+0.8% vs $105.73), WTI ~$95.79 (two-week high). Iranian officials told Reuters they began using new tactics ~10 days ago against vessels violating Tehran’s restrictions, aiming to keep prices high and influence US midterms. UKMTO: a container ship and tanker were hit by projectiles in Hormuz; IRGC says a container ship sank after hitting a mine. Houthis struck a Saudi Aramco administrative building in Dhahran (limited fire); Riyadh airport has been hit four times in a week. IEA: Russian diesel easing unlikely to materially change the gasoil balance; Goldman raised its Dec Brent forecast to $90.

Oct 13 log: Brent December ~$105.73 (-0.9% vs $106.65 Monday settle), WTI ~$91.81. Trump says Russia agreed to supply diesel and the US temporarily eased sanctions on Russian fuel, but tankers were hit near Sohar and in Hormuz (UKMTO), the IRGC claims another strike, and Houthis hit Riyadh airport. OPEC cut its 2026 demand-growth forecast to 0.4 mb/d. IEA board and EIA inventories due Oct 15.

Oct 12 log: Brent December ~$102.93 (-1.7% vs $104.72 Friday settle), WTI ~$89.97. Early dip on Trump’s claimed Russia-Ukraine energy ceasefire (unconfirmed by Kyiv/Moscow) and profit-taking, but a tanker was struck in Hormuz Sunday, a second was hit by a drone near Sohar, Oman, and Houthis hit Riyadh airport again. Iran called a US proposal to reopen the strait “insufficient.” Official flow claims (US Energy Sec. Wright: 13–14 mb/d; JPMorgan: 17.5 mb/d) diverge from Kpler (Sept Hormuz exports ~9 mb/d, ~44% of pre-war); Gulf refined product flows are only 25–35% of normal. IEA board meets Oct 15.

Oct 11 log: Weekend, no new Brent settle ($104.72 from Fri Oct 9; WTI $91.85). CENTCOM says a US jet disabled the Panama-flagged Ocean Molika for breaching the Iran blockade (4th vessel disabled since Jul 14, 135 turned back). UKMTO reports an outbound tanker hit by an unknown projectile in Hormuz with fire aboard (crew safe); IRGC claims a supertanker struck a mine; UAE rescued 22 crew from a burning tanker. Hurricane Isaias still has most US Gulf crude offline; Iran is reviewing the US 7-day reopening plan.

Oct 10 log: Brent settled $104.72 (+0.42% vs $104.28) and WTI $91.85 on Friday Oct 9 as Hurricane Isaias shut in ~1.3 mb/d (over 70%) of US Gulf crude output; China's plan to resume refined fuel exports and Trump's “productive” Iran talk comments (no strike before Nov 3) capped gains. Iran says it will respond within days to the US reply to its seven-day Hormuz reopening proposal, but about a dozen tanker attacks hit Sep 28–Oct 2 and the US sanctioned 17 more vessels. Brent finishes the week higher.

Oct 9 log: Brent December traded ~$102.60 (-1.6% vs the $104.28 prior settle) and WTI ~$90.20 after Trump said the US will not attack Iran before the Nov 3 midterms amid “productive” talks and Iranian FM Araqchi said Tehran is reviewing the US response to its proposal to reopen Hormuz within seven days. Offsetting: a tanker was struck near Qatar and Houthi missiles hit Riyadh’s airport for a third day, UKMTO logged at least nine Hormuz/Gulf attacks in Oct 1-7, Hurricane Isaias shut in ~1.3 mb/d (63%) of Gulf of Mexico output, and the US sanctioned 17 more vessels carrying Iranian crude.

Oct 8 log: Brent December traded ~$102.20 (+2.0% vs the $100.20 prior settle) and WTI ~$89.70 after Kpler counted only 7 commodity vessels transiting Hormuz on Oct 6 (fewest since Jul 23) and last week saw the most tanker attacks of the war; a tanker north of Qatar was hit by multiple projectiles with casualties. The Atlantic reports the Pentagon is identifying Iran targets for possible strikes before the midterms. The IEA is accelerating stock releases (largely previously planned barrels) and US crude stocks fell 3.2M bbl vs -1.7M expected.

Oct 7 log: Brent December traded ~$101.51 (+0.9% vs the $100.58 prior close) and WTI ~$90.25 as at least nine Hormuz vessel attacks in October and Houthi strikes on Saudi airports at Jazan and Najran outweighed Gulf export recovery (Vitol: ~12 mb/d exiting the strait; Shell: ~80% of pre-war flows; East-West pipeline at 5.8 mb/d). A Gulf of Mexico storm threatens US output.

Oct 6 log: Brent December traded ~$99.88 (-0.4% vs the $100.32 prior close) and WTI ~$87.54 as the G7 100M-barrel release, Kpler data showing non-Iranian Gulf crude exports back at the pre-war ~16.5 mb/d average, Kuwait at ~75% of pre-war output and an Aramco Asia price cut to a six-year low outweighed renewed Hormuz tanker attacks and Houthi strikes on Saudi Aramco sites. Iran says Hormuz stays closed until Islamabad memorandum conditions are met.

Oct 5 log: Brent December traded ~$101.60 (-0.6% vs the $102.25 Oct 2 settle) and WTI ~$90.10 as the G7 100M-barrel release and Middle East crude exports back above pre-war levels (Kpler) outweighed Houthi claims of strikes on Aramco sites and at least seven Hormuz tanker incidents. Aramco cut November Asia prices to six-year lows; OPEC+ delayed its 2027 quota review.

Oct 4 log: Weekend, no new settlement — Brent December last settled at $102.25 (Oct 2). The G7 agreed a coordinated 100M-barrel IEA release over four months with diesel front-loaded in the first 20 days; Brent briefly dipped below $100 before recovering to ~$102. UKMTO reports at least three tankers struck by projectiles in and around Hormuz since Oct 1, while Hegseth insists the US blockade is “ironclad.”

Oct 3 log: Brent December settled at $102.25 (-$0.06) on Oct 2 and WTI fell 1.9% to $91.11 after EU nations agreed to release additional diesel and crude stocks, giving back little of Thursday’s 4.4% jump. UKMTO reported an unknown projectile struck a crude tanker ~4nm east of Oman (crew safe); the US is sending a third carrier strike group plus an amphibious group with 2,000+ Marines. Kpler shows Saudi Hormuz shipments at 2.9 mb/d in September (vs ~1.0 mb/d in August) with Hormuz crude flows at their highest since the war began.

Oct 2 log: Brent December settled at $102.31 (+4.37%) on Oct 1 and WTI at $92.87 (+2.7%), the largest daily gain in weeks, after the WSJ reported a third US carrier and up to 10,000 more troops heading to the Middle East and Reuters reported China suspended refined-product exports beyond Hong Kong and Macau. Three Liberian-flagged tankers were hit by projectiles in Hormuz Tuesday (Marisks). Gulf crude exports have recovered to roughly pre-war levels via the Saudi East-West pipeline and ship-to-ship transfers, but refined-product flows remain ~40% below pre-war and Dallas Fed respondents expect a year before diesel spreads normalize. Diplomacy is subdued; Iran is preparing a broader response if the US resumes large-scale strikes. Hormuz transit itself remains far below pre-war.